2022 Recruiting: Keon Sabb | mgoblog

Previously: Last year’s profiles. S Damani Dent, S/Nk Zeke Berry.

Was somebody scorning traditional, strapping 6’2″/210 thunking safeties who move faster than the average NFL receiver? Well buddy, they’re not totally out of style. The measurements of the nine safeties just drafted in the first three rounds this year were 6’4″/220, 6’0″/192 (Dax), 6’2″/200, 6’0″/197, 6’2″/200, 6’1″/210, 6’2″/195, 6’1″/215, and 6’1″/200.

Keon Sabb is already NFL-sized, but nowhere near that level of refinement, having played as much wide receiver and basketball as safety. Also he was one of those early top-5 players in his class, one that ol’ Fan Brain ignores when Sam Webb says “go watch the tape!” as if this one won’t end like they all do.

Before 42-27 and all that, Fan Brain understood an elite VIPER(!!!) from New Jersey was something the 2016 class might pull off with the help of Chris Partridge and a couple of Campanile brothers. It certainly wasn’t going to bet on our cherub assistants after 2-4, especially considering they were going against the boiled visage of Brent Venables.

Partridge, in fact, was the original lead on this recruitment, which means Fan Brain has had plenty of time to come up with disseminations for whenever yet another ludicrous athlete in a ludicrous body would choose one of the few beneficiaries of a ludicrous postseason.

Sabb did commit to Clemson, and Fan Brain scoured the ensuing commitment posts for all the reasons why safeties get overrated:

1. Top 5 in your class before you’re a freshman just means you got to puberty first.
2. Size is overrated in general, especially when it’s involved in early recruiting ratings, and can even be a detriment if you grow out of your ideal position (see Miller, Ricardo).
3. 40 times are overrated.
4. Big hits are DEFINITELY overrated.
5. Guys who transfer up (multiple times) are overrated.
6. Guys who fall down the rankings never fall far enough.
7. They’re taking him as a hybrid linebacker; do we even have those anymore?

Fan Brain is still adjusting to a world where Michigan beat Ohio State 42-27, crushed Iowa to win the Big Ten Championship, and punched its ticket to the Playoffs. I mean, Michigan beat Ohio State 42-27, crushed Iowa to win the Big Ten Championship, and punched its ticket to the Playoffs. In fact, Michigan beat Ohio State 42-27, crushed Iowa to win the Big Ten Championship, and punched its ticket to the Playoffs!

Along the way Keon Sabb decommitted and chose Michigan. Now it’s up to us to convince Fan Brain that a top-100 demi-linebacker who runs a 4.4 forty, has been posting sick slams since he was in middle school, and just played for IMG is pretty good.

[After THE JUMP: shouldn’t be that hard]

———————

He’s an athlete.

Sabb has baffled recruiting systems by refusing to stay at one sport, school, or position long enough to get a two-year sample, and projecting to neither of the football positions he’s yet played.

He was looking at basketball scholarships in the first half of high school. By early 2019, Sabb was the #1 football player in his class in New Jersey, a big-bodied receiver running around, past, and through a league of basketball schools. He switched focus to football, moved up a level, and played both ways in 2020—helping Williamstown hold its opponents to 6.1 points/game—then transferred to IMG and put down some film as a two-high safety.

The impression he gives is one of athleticism. On3 national analyst Chad Simmons was like: “Sabb is an athlete.” Clemson writer Adam Luckett was like “Talk about a dynamic athlete!”

On offense, Sabb is a very effective receiver. On the hardwood, this is a player who can play some hoops while being a highlight factory as a dunker.

The Wolverine’s EJ Holland started calling Sabb “a freak athlete” after seeing him at a 7v7 tournament in Orlando. Since those tournaments tend to favor the super-agile over the strong, it says something that Sabb was standing out at his size. That qualifier, however, has been a theme.

For a big fella.

The specific order of operations rings clearer when you’ve just read a zillion draft prospectuses that call Dax Hill a coverage safety who can hit. In just about every scouting report, Sabb is emphatically the other way around, ie coverage is surprisingly adept for a guy who specializes in high-impact snot ejection. 247’s Chris Singletary, seeing Sabb at the UA All-America game, said Sabb “moved fluid for a big guy“:

I think once you put the pads on him, you really, really understand how big he is. Like Dohn said: huge. Growth potential is off the charts, so it’s going to be interesting how his body matures, but I like how he moved.

At On3, Chad Simmons saw Sabb as a “big safety that can run, cover, and hit,” and that IMG was moving him all over the defense, but “some” were suggesting Clemson play Sabb in the box. The some were his colleagues: Charles Power said Sabb “could project as a safety or linebacker long-term” because of his big frame, and that he “showed some nice coverage instincts “for a bigger safety.”

Tim Verghese was all “for a big guy” but also with ‘but’ negations and a ‘they said’:

Keon Sabb is a bigger defensive back but showed the ability to cover as a deep safety, if needed. The coaches and receivers were complimentary of his cover skills and know-how. We had one top receiver tell us that Sabb was the only defensive back who made him re-direct his route. I still lean towards Sabb trending more towards being a box player long-term, but you have to be encouraged by the cover ability he showed in Orlando.

Safeties cover. Can he cover?

To be determined. After playing both offense and defense in high school, the sites portray Sabb as still quite raw as a coverage guy. Dohn:

“He’s been playing safety here, I watched some of the one on ones he did the first day and he’s going to have work on some of his man stuff and we get that.”

Singletary responded with a couple of exceptions—”he was patient covering down on the slot” and beat some “inside fades” (seam routes I’m guessing)—but the picture that emerges is one of a guy with raw technique making up for it with size and speed.

Rivals’ guys mentioned Sabb a couple of times at the UA game, putting him and Will Johnson among their top four-performing DBs at the mid-week point. Gorney said Sabb “could be special“:

His length, timing and feel for the defensive back spot is elite and he had at least two nice pass deflections during one-on-one or 7-on-7.

Power said Sabb “shows range in zone coverage” but is “technically unrefined” going into the UA game. He revised his opinion after:

Sabb did a nice job staying in-phase downfield and fared better than some of his smaller and faster peers. The New Jersey native looks to have benefitted from getting extensive work at safety during his time at IMG Academy.

On3’s Gerry Hamilton called Sabb “savvy” and showed…

“attention to detail being over the top. Flashed good feet and COD for his size.”

In case you’re wondering that “top receiver” was A&M recruit Evan Stewart, the nation’s #2 receiver.

As for the range, Sabb ran a 4.46 at 6’3″/205 last winter, or at least that’s what he told Sam Webb. Forty times are fake, but the average NFL safety runs a 4.55.

Nevertheless, Touch the Banner had deep concerns about lining up Sabb with slot mites:

My biggest questions about Sabb come with how his body and skills will develop. His frame is a little thick for a safety, and I don’t necessarily see the hips for him to roam center field or play man coverage on quick slot guys at the next level.

Sabb enrolled early and “made a positive impression” playing at safety this spring, as the most consistent freshman mentioned after Will Johnson and Darius Clemons, and “covering a lot of ground” at single-high safety in the spring game.

Can he play linebacker? Like linebacker-flavored linebacker? Like WLB?

A few scouts suggested it but that meant projecting past mega-safety, and sites are usually loathe to discuss Plan B’s. 24/7’s Andrew Ivins came away from an IMG game last year saying Sabb “could very well end up emerging as a linebacker at the next level” but “needs to get better at fighting off blocks.” Power wants Sabb to “continue to improve his recognition and take-on skills.”

247’s Brian Dohn used all safety phrasing—”he can come down in the box and hit you, be effective in the run game”—while projecting Sabb to carry 15 or 20 more pounds. TTB also liked the burst that smaller linebackers (and Cover 2 safeties) use to good effect: “He has good straight-line speed and shows the ability to break on short throws, and I think he will be a solid tackler.”

Sam Webb asked where they thought he fits, and Sabb replied “problem-solver” who can play safety and still body up on tight ends. He gave a similar line to The Athletic’s Austin Meek:

“They said I’m like a mismatch fixer, a problem fixer. … Sometimes some of the safeties are too small to guard the bigger tight ends, but they can guard the slots and stuff. I’m kind of in between. I’m fast enough to guard the slot but big enough to guard the tight end.”

..which means it’s coming from the program, not Sabb.

Is “Problem Fixer” a position on this defense?

Midwest analyst Brian Dohn was also at the UA game, after Sabb had signed with Michigan, and couldn’t help but project the frame to Brown’s VIPER(!!!) position. He was hardly the first; when Sabb committed to Clemson there were comparisons made to their star hybrid Isaiah Simmons, and Clemson insider JP Priester, who moved to Maven last year, said Sabb “has the potential to move into some sort of hybrid role” and mentioned SAM, which was where Simmons played. Ivins hedged with Hybrid-plus, or in his words Sabb:

has the looks of someone that will eventually make an impact on the backend of Power 5 defense, but could also emerge as more of a box player and potentially even a hybrid linebacker that excels in coverage if body continues to fill out.

Ivins framed this is a positive: “Position ambiguity [is] a plus in an era where many NFL front offices are rostering defenders that can do a variety of different things.” His NFL comp was the Patriots’ Kyle Dugger, a 6’2″/220 hybrid from Lenoir-Rhyne with an forty that had to be fake but wasn’t.

Clemson had the idea of a SAM (their VIPER(!!!)) who can do more than the average hybrid, or as Luckett put it “a quality schematic chess piece“:

The elite prospect has a chance to be a multi-dimensional player that could give the Tigers a schematic advantage over most offenses. … The first thing that jumps out is versatility. This is a safety who can be effective deep in zone coverage playing centerfield and in the box as a run defender.

That’s not too weird. Khaleke Hudson rotated to free safety at times. Peppers could stay on a slot if they moved him to the tight end’s side, and was grateful for the opportunity. It’s more about whether Michigan envisions Sabb playing where Hawkins was, or how they use Barrett. Steve Lorenz talks to the coaches but didn’t seem to have an answer for their ultimate plans:

The biggest question for Sabb will be where the Michigan defensive staff wants to play him. Does he project as a straight up safety or does he grow into the box/hybrid type that Ivins describes in his scouting report? We see him as a special teams contributor at least with the potential to work his way into a situational player.

In other words, yes. Michael Barrett played a bunch of SAM last year when Michigan went to a 4-3 that Barrett made more of a four-two-and-a-half. It was effective, for the same reason it’s been effective throughout college football in recent years. Hybrids didn’t go out of fashion just because Michigan spent most of the season in a Nickel with Dax Hill in the slot and the defensive ends way out wide.

The free safety (Hawkins) position as it was deployed last year also works. TTB:

To me Sabb looks like a solid replacement for what Brad Hawkins did in Michigan’s defense. He can play in the box, play over a tight end, take a running back out of the backfield, and man cover a little bit.

Anthony Broome, now of On3/The Wolverine, split the difference, comping Sabb to Hawkins in frame but suggesting Barrett’s role as well.

Old fashioned safety words.

“Ballhawk” has become so trite that it’s been relegated to the  corners of the internet where people were still saying “stud” as late as 2019. With Sabb, you can hear the scouts straining not to bring it back. Ivins calls this “takes sharp angles in coverage” and “gets down hill in a hurry.” Priester says it like “rarely takes bad angles and has a quick reaction time.” Adam Friedman, whose subscribers lean older than the other two sites, tiptoed the edge of cliché:

He’s an imposing figure in the secondary that isn’t afraid to come down hill and mix it up against the run. He’s also very physical with receivers that try to come over the middle.

…then ran right through it.

As a safety, he is a ballhawk in the secondary and has added significant body mass over the past year and a half so he can really be an enforcer too. He has very good ball skills and should produce plenty of momentum shifting turnovers throughout his career

Just about every writeup includes something about Sabb’s literal impact. EJ Holland concluded his assessment with “…enforcer on the back end. He is very comfortable in the box and loves to hit.” Friedman used Sabb getting called for targeting in a positive light. Gorney put this as “not hesitant to go in there and try to knock people around and try to pop the ball out” before falling back on “physical style.” Adam Luckett (On3/Clemson): “safety with hard-hitting ability.” You get the idea.

Multi-sport. Ivins mentions “a variety of impressive dunks” from Sabb’s basketball career. The internet provides.

Sabb was already dunking the basketball in 8th grade.

Used to be a five-star. One thing we look for, almost as much as the recruiting ratings, is how much they move, and how. Often a very early 5-star will sink into the edges of 4-stardom, signifying an early growth spurt but a ceiling that’s already mostly realized. Sabb was identified early in his class, and was 247’s #1 ATH/#7 overall when he committed to Clemson in July 2021. At that point the class had barely been scouted thanks to COVID, and a zillion more players were added as camps opened and film of 15-year-olds was updated to their 17-year-old versions.

I don’t have complete tracking but I can make a picture:

We have seen guys, e.g. Marvin Robinson, who were top 5 overall prospects then fell as far as the services were willing to admit their overexcitement when the guy grew too big. That is not Sabb. The picture above is one of an early ranking and a re-ranking out of a pool ten times larger after the pandemic. Notably, some of the services moved Sabb up at the end: 24/7 from a 95 from a 94 in their last rankings; ESPN bumped him to an 84 from 83, and Rivals moved him up two spots in a re-rank of their top-250 that saw a ton of movement to every side of him. Everyone kept Sabb in their respective top-100s.

A drop from the top five overall to about 100 is still a drop, but it’s explained in the uncertainty of his size. In other words, they seem to believe he’s a top-100 player, not a former top-5 player who didn’t fall far enough. The offers were there too; Ohio State pursued well past the Clemson commitment, Oklahoma tried to flip him with Venables, and Georgia was coming when Michigan locked Sabb up on Early Signing Day.

Can we keep him? In the free transfer era—and yes I’m writing this immediately after being burned by Frankie Collins—we have become paranoid about losing guys early. Sabb has a few red flags—he transferred up twice in high school, and flipped to Michigan after Michigan beat Ohio State. Those may be false flags—Sabb told Sam Webb beating Ohio State didn’t actually move him, and told Rivals the biggest reason for the flip was Venables left Clemson, while Michigan stabilized. Moving up high schools in New Jersey doesn’t register for me after watching a breakdown of his sophomore film that was literally 10 minutes of the analyst laughing at the competition, and the IMG move was a) an opportunity nobody would pass up, and b) COVID-related. IMG kids do tend to be more likely to go to the NFL early, but if we get a Cesar Ruiz career out of him: win!

Etc. Brother Amari Sabb is an early 2026 elite who already holds a Michigan offer. Younger brother Xavier Sabb is a 2027. These people were born after Mike Hart graduated.

Why Tripp Welborne? Sap?

Huge safety who was a receiver, basketball star, and national recruit people knew about for years before he chose a college, and were astonished would leave the Carolinas. Insane speed for his size. Will bend a Spartan in half. The recruiting stories are virtually identical. Sabb even wears #3 so Fan Brain can make the connection.

Late 1980s safeties were quasi-linebackers in Moeller (then the DC)’s 5-2 defense, setting the edge on slants and mostly covering tight ends and fullbacks out of the backfield. It’s not an exact match—Tripp also set a program record for punt return yards that wouldn’t be topped until Breaston—but I’m too much of a late-90s nerd to go with Tommy Hendricks or Cato June. Ernest Shazor maybe, but Shazor was reckless.

Also I’ve been begging for a guy like this ever since we broke our last one. This is the week I finally replaced my original Nintendo; maybe Michigan found a Sullivan Anthony Welborne IV.

Guru Reliability: Fair. They’ve been watching him at three different levels of football and camps for many years, and got to scout him at IMG against mostly D-I caliber athletes. Except none of that can tell them what they want to know because they can only guess how much—and into what position—Sabb will grow.

Variance: Virtually zero. They all have him ranked within six spots of each other, and all for the same reasons.

Ceiling: Very high. We keep forgetting that importing the Ravens defense was supposed to be about disguising coverages with multi-use personnel in the back seven, not playing two-high versus Ohio State. Tripp!

General Excitement Level: High-minus-plus (good luck converting that one to a numeric value, Mathlete). Somehow, I’ve got the highest-ranked safety in the class ranked third among them. This is somewhat on fan brain, but also that I felt the other two safeties are underrated while Sabb has all the markers of a guy the services used to get too crazy over, and who might grow to a size that doesn’t match his skills.

Projection: Very good Big Ten starter who gets an NFL look. The distance between that ceiling and where Sabb was in 2020 is vast, and while a year at IMG covered more of that ground than he would have at a normal high school, there’s still a lot of development to go before we find out what we’ve got here. He got a start on developing those skills by enrolling early, but which skills he’ll need aren’t even a certain question because his physical development could change the whole dynamic.

Hybrid LB-safeties are not new in football; they’ve actually appeared during every transition from 7-3-1 fronts to today’s 3-2-6 dimes. In between those eras, you get some teams who leave hybrids on the field, and others who use them in special packages to solve hybrid offensive threats. Sabb can be a very good safety in college, but the reason Tripp Welborne was a cheat code for his era was everybody played multiple tight ends. Today it’s…well here’s my UFR data from last season:

Given the breakout above, and the fact that there are always at least two safeties, the problem that Sabb solves (two TEs creating a size mismatch with one of your safeties) only exists about a third of the time. The rest of the time there are Jaxon Smith-Njigbas out there roaming the slots, and you need at least one of your three DBs to be able to Dax Hill that guy from the line of scrimmage to the endzone. Two of them, actually, unless you want to get predictable. This is why guys like Berry are so valuable, guys like Dent are underrated, and guys like Sabb are on the field.

If Sabb can stay with the slot ninjas, forget the roof. I don’t think that’s in anyone’s projections, nor has to be. People still play tight ends; the ability to use him to disguise coverages vs double-TE sets is a bonus, but given the modern game, no longer game-breaking.

But you know what most teams still have on the field all the time in modern football? Tight ends. Lots of them. Tight end erasers are important players on your defense, and the ability to leave them on the field to cover deep middle and Cover 2 zones means they aren’t wasted or forced to run with the guy (betraying the coverage) when teams move the TE across the formation, which they (and we) do all the time. The difference between a Viper and a base two-high FS isn’t huge; in fact against split zone, the most common play in CFB, they end up doing the same job.

Sabb projects to a guy who can take on Michael Barrett’s role without changing personnel—the nickel becomes a safety—which means there are really two paths to playing. I think he gets on the safety two-deep, battling for position with Makari Paige, as a freshman, and also starts preparing to inherit the SAM job from Michael Barrett while the other two are mixing it up with the nickels. The cornerbacks are going to be part of the equation at nickel as well, but I think Michigan would prefer a Moore or Berry or maybe Dent win the job, long-term, to get more versatility out of the position. Sabb is also rooting for a safety to get used up at nickel, since that opens up a spot for a second deep safety next to Moten.

Sabb’s best self would be opposite a safety-nickel like Berry, letting the other two move around him if there’s to be any man-to-man work on a slot ninja. The SAM job is a part-timer, but an important one, and with more promise than the 5-2 looks they were trying against the same personnel. Get Sabb throwing his weight around on the edge on plays designed to get a puller a free shot at a puny DB, roving deep middle thirds with that 4.4 speed, and handling some part-time hybrid work, and he’s an important piece in a very “multiple” defense, fixing problems so his coaches and teammates can focus on creating them.